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View Full Version : Is there anyway to predict the growth of a forum?

John D
03-21-2006, 10:08 AM
Hey,
Someone has asked me to start, and build up a forum for them.

They want to see rough figures of when x members and x posts will be achieved but I am finding it very difficult to work out how many posts/member and how often I will get signups and even posts.

I know there's no equation to find it out, but has anyone tried to reach targets?
How did you set them and what figures were you predicting?
Tyler
03-21-2006, 03:19 PM
Honestly, John I wouldn't do it. Community growths can be very unpredictable, if not impossible to predict. If you fail one of the targets you made for yourself, you'll feel down on yourself, but in reality it is not your fault. I would just take it as you go John IMHO.
Jan
03-22-2006, 12:41 AM
I would agree that it would be impossible to predict. Sure the new owner might like to see rapid growth, but whether he/she comes anywhere close to that is impossible to say.
John D
03-22-2006, 10:25 AM
Yep I think its impossible myself, but a similar thing has to be done by a lot of companies making predictions, company sales and profits, the number of visitors to a tourist attraction etc.

I know they aren't related but if it can be done for something like those without a variable, I think there has to be some way to come up with rough figures to how many members/posts a forum could get.

Maybe finding the x variable of how many people will register with x uniques/day, how many of them will post and how often.
unfv
03-28-2006, 10:50 AM
it's unpredictable, it depends in so many variable factors
SoftWareRevue
03-28-2006, 01:36 PM
If I had to come up with figures for a proposal, I'd dust off the crystal ball and give it my best shot. :crystal:

Of course, I'd tell them it was just an estimate based on my knowledge of the industry of something.
Doug
03-28-2006, 06:06 PM
If I had to come up with figures for a proposal, I'd dust off the crystal ball and give it my best shot. :crystal:

Of course, I'd tell them it was just an estimate based on my knowledge of the industry of something.

I agree, it has to be the crystal ball. :P There's no good way to predict growth until you're at least a few months into the process.
HostFrog
03-28-2006, 06:54 PM
This is the first time I have heard about predicting site visitors. I mean, crystal ball or Magic 8 ball just might be your best bet.
Banana
03-29-2006, 08:25 AM
just don't shoot to high or you may be a bit dissapointed ;)
John D
03-29-2006, 12:45 PM
Hehe thinking it might be the only way ;)